Vlad's made his move, now what?
When is crossing your fingers and hoping for the best the right strategy? ( Probably a lot more often than we'd like to admit)
I don’t know what will happen in Ukraine. As of this writing, Putin has moved Russian forces into eastern Ukraine as “peace keepers”. Hopefully this is as far as he’s going to go. I certainly don’t approve of annexing territory by force in the modern world. On the other hand, I have a hard time getting worked up about a region populated by people who consider themselves Russian being annexed by Russia. I know not all people in the relevant regions of Ukraine are “pro=Russian”, but no areas of anywhere are 100% anything. I believe that people have a right to self determination, and have little reason to believe that the situation in Ukraine is anything more than the people of Eastern Ukraine aligning with an international power that can facilitate that self determination that so many of us take for granted. I have very little to no faith in the military industrial blob giving the public unbiased, or even correct, information.
I believe the people of Russia have the same right of self determination. By all measures Putin is wildly popular in Russia. I’d like to see Russia move towards more of a western style liberal democracy. I’d also like a million dollars. I’m not holding my breath for either of those things to happen. Russia is where it is today for a number of reasons, and the US is certainly one of them. We made a lot mistakes after the fall of the USSR. We backed a deeply corrupt regime headed by Boris Yeltsin, one of the worst people for the job. We had a real chance to capitalize on the predominantly good image we enjoyed with much of the former Soviet citizenry. We didn’t take advantage of that opportunity, due mainly to hubris and greed, and are dealing with some of the consequences today.
Realistically though, this is an European issue. I don’t advocate for a complete isolationist posture, but when it comes down to it, Russia poses almost no real physical threat to anybody in the USA. We of course have responsibilities to our allies, but it’s time for Europe to shoulder more of the load when it comes to their defense. One of the few things Trump was right about was NATO members not taking care of their financial responsibilities in regards to defense spending. Very few countries meet the two percent threshold. Instead, they rely on the tacit threat of American power to ensure their safety. I, along with most Americans, think it’s time for that to change. Though I have little hope it will with an administration like Biden’s running the show.
The administration seems far more eager than our European allies, especially Germany, to take an aggressive posture with Russia. Through utterly terrible energy policy, big swathes of Europe are highly dependent on Russian oil and gas. Biden has taken steps to try and increase imports from the US, but that’s going to eventually engender push back from environmental interests in the Democratic party. We seem to have taken a harder line than Ukraine itself, though. President Zelensky was obviously ( to everyone except US media) annoyed with the constant predictions of war. While addressing the media on Feb 12, he said angrily/sarcastically:
“I think there’s too much out there about a full-scale war from Russia, and people are even naming dates,” he said, with undisguised contempt directed at the West. “All this information only creates panic, it doesn’t help us.”
He then made a faux request for intelligence help from the media:
“If you or anyone else has extra information about the 100% invasion of Russia starting on the 16th, please, give it to us,”
You could see why the Europeans would count on us for military support. The lust for this war to happen, especially from the “liberal” media and “left wing” administration, has been stunning. The administration has been assuring us now for a month and a half that attack was just days away, and it would undoubtedly lead to massive civilian casualties. Then were told, “anything we say that doesn’t happen only didn’t happen because we said it”. It’s unfalsifiable, which, at least in scientific terms, means its worthless. I know this isn’t a scientific issue, but when it’s coming from the same people who tried to sell us on Iraqi WMD’s, four years of Russiagate nonsense, Afghan bounties, and countless other half truths, selective leaks, misdirections, and flat out lies, it’s hard to take as credible.
It seem that often the only justifications given for the overly aggressive posture with Russia from the Democrats, or the revived neo-cons who now inhibit the Democratic sphere of influence (David Frum, Bill Krystol, Rick Wilson , ect……) is one of two things; either we can’t show weakness, or Putin is an authoritarian. Only overly educated, elitist duchebags would think that the guy who constantly feels the need to show off how tough he is, is really the toughest guy. The same way that the guy who needs to constantly show off how smart is, is never the smartest, the same goes toughness. Normal people know this. Obnoxious boasting and putting on a show is not toughness. Losing your mind at the slightest provocation is, in fact, a sign of weakness. As far as the authoritarian angle goes, yeah Putin is one. That’s bad, but the US has plenty of authoritarian allies. We just made another large arms deal with Saudi Arabia (contrary to Biden’s campaign promises) so they can continue their part in the disaster that is Yemen currently. Apparently bombing civilians is A-okay, but annexing people who want to be annexed is beyond the pale. Maybe if the Dems and the media spend the next four years claiming the House of Saud interfered to help a Republican win they’ll start caring about the people of Yemen as much as they claim care about the people of Eastern Ukraine.
That brings me to one of the most disturbing things about the current situation. If this was any other country, I don’t think there would be the amount of support for aggressive action that there is. The Dems and the media spent the last six years making a concerted effort to turn Vladimir Putin into lord Voldemort. He’s not a good dude, I agree with that. He is also not evil incarnate. Nor is he any real threat to the US. The Dems constantly tied him Trump, without ever considering the consequences, or what Trump’s actual policies, were. With the slow unraveling of trust in our country, and the world as a whole (read Matin Gurri’s “Revolt of the Public” it’s great and explains a lot of what we’re seeing today.) there are, with out a doubt, opportunities for leaders like Putin to exploit our internal divisions. Ultimately though, it’s those divisions, and the way we deal with them, that are the problem. Not a small time dictator and his small troll farm.
The way our media and leaders in Washington have handled this current situation has only exasperated those divisions. Despite Biden’s promises on the campaign trail, he has, on many occasions, used absolutely ridiculous inflammatory partisan rhetoric. Using that fiery style has done little to help his plummeting poll numbers. Voters have not been impressed with the administrations handling any number of issues. Democrats as a whole have staked out many increasingly less popular ideas and seem headed for a drubbing in the upcoming mid-term elections. Now, when Biden’s talking about Ukraine, he’s not talking about inflation. When he’s talking about Putin, Covid can take a back seat. Vlad’s making moves, no time for crime or education discussions. All faithfully echoed by a mainstream media that are now, if not former members themselves of, then stenographers for, the military-industrial/political blob. As well as shameless partisans, shilling for the Democratic party.
I hope the conclusion to this current saga is as peaceful as possible. I also hope the US remains as uninvolved as we reasonably can be. While I definitely don’t think Putin wants all out war with the US and Europe, I also don’t think anyone can be certain about the future when it comes international conflict. Human beings are not rational. Political and military leaders are human(of a sort), and as such are susceptible to emotional and rash decisions just like the rest of us. It doesn’t take a lot on imagination to envision a few poorly timed mistakes, or a couple of hasty decisions, leading to escalation. Ultimately, a shooting war with Russia, a nuclear power, could be catastrophic for the world. We need our leaders to be leveled headed and thoughtful. We need rhetoric that is thought out and not provocative. We need competence, capability, and above all else cautiousness. What we have is the Biden administration. So in other words we need luck.